The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) has lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil value forecast in its newest brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched lately.
In its June STEO, the EIA is forecasting that the WTI spot value will common $80.32 per barrel within the second quarter of 2024, $78.75 per barrel within the third quarter, $82.14 per barrel within the fourth quarter, and $79.70 per barrel general in 2024.
In its earlier Might STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot value would common $84.76 per barrel within the second quarter of 2024, $85.50 per barrel within the third quarter, $84.17 per barrel within the fourth quarter, and $83.05 per barrel general this 12 months.
Each STEOs present that the primary quarter 2024 WTI spot value averaged $77.50 per barrel and that the general 2023 WTI spot value averaged $77.58 per barrel. The June and Might STEOs additionally each venture that the WTI spot value will common $83.50 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $81.50 per barrel within the second quarter, $80.50 per barrel within the third quarter, $78.16 per barrel within the fourth quarter, and $80.88 per barrel general in 2025.
In its newest STEO, the EIA highlighted that the April to Might 2024 WTI entrance month futures value averaged $81.51 per barrel. The April to Might 2023 WTI entrance month futures value averaged $75.27 per barrel and the 2021 to 2023 WTI entrance month futures value averaged $80.01 per barrel, the EIA’s June STEO confirmed.
WTI refers to West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Trade (NYMEX), owned by Chicago Mercantile Trade (CME) Group, the EIA famous in its June STEO.
A report despatched to Rigzone by Customary Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell on June 18 revealed that Customary Chartered is forecasting that the close by future NYMEX WTI foundation Cushing, Oklahoma, value will common $95 per barrel within the third quarter and $103 per barrel within the fourth quarter.
The corporate expects the commodity to common $106 per barrel in 2025, the report revealed.
A report despatched to Rigzone by Horsnell on Might 14 confirmed that Customary Chartered Financial institution had similar value projections for the third and fourth quarter of 2024 and for 2025 general.
A report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on June 13 revealed that BMI, a unit of Fitch Options, is forecasting that the WTI crude value will common $82 per barrel this 12 months and $79 per barrel subsequent 12 months. In a separate report despatched to Rigzone again in March, BMI projected that the WTI crude value would common $82 per barrel in 2024 and $81 per barrel subsequent 12 months.
In a analysis observe despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis workforce on June 13, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI spot value will common $79 per barrel in 2024 and $71 per barrel in 2025. A analysis observe despatched to Rigzone on Might 20 by the JPM Commodities Analysis workforce had similar WTI spot value forecasts.
In one other report despatched to Rigzone final week by the Morningstar workforce, analysts on the firm stated, “on a quarterly foundation, oil costs look weak”. The analysts added within the report that they “count on continued weak spot, with $65-$70 a barrel (WTI) a possible chance in 2024, if not decrease”.
The Morningstar report famous that “WTI costs look poised to say no” and said that “WTI costs stay effectively above midcycle ranges”.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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