In a report despatched to Rigzone this week, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will likely be down 0.9 million barrels for the week ending Could 17.
“This compares to a 2.5 million barrel draw for the week ending Could 10, with the entire U.S. crude steadiness realizing modestly looser than we had anticipated final week,” the strategists acknowledged within the report.
“Shifting to this week, from refineries, we mannequin one more uptick in crude runs (+0.2 million barrels per day). Amongst web imports, we anticipate a slight lower, with exports up modestly on a nominal foundation (+0.2 million barrels per day) and imports additionally larger (+0.2 million barrels per day),” they added.
Timing of cargoes might add some volatility to this week’s crude steadiness, the strategists warned within the report.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we once more search for a bounce-back (+0.5 million barrels per day) following one other weak nominal print final week,” they mentioned.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a bigger enhance in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stock (+1.0 million barrels) on the week,” they added.
The strategists additionally famous within the report that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline mannequin is looking for a 1.0 million barrel construct this week.
“Amongst merchandise, we search for a attract gasoline (-1.7 million barrels), with builds in distillate (+0.2 million barrels) and jet (+1.3 million barrels),” they added.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending Could 17,” the strategists went on to state.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, which was launched on Could 15 and included information for the week ending Could 10, the U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) introduced that U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the week ending Could 3 to the week ending Could 10.
Crude oil shares within the U.S., not together with the SPR, stood at 457.0 million barrels on Could 10, 459.5 million barrels on Could 3, and 467.6 million barrels on Could 12, 2023, the report confirmed. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 367.8 million barrels on Could 10, 367.2 million barrels on Could 3, and 359.6 million barrels on Could 12, 2023, the report revealed.
Complete petroleum shares within the U.S. – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gasoline ethanol, kerosene sort jet gasoline, distillate gasoline oil, residual gasoline oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.610 billion barrels on Could 10, the report highlighted. This determine was up 4.1 million barrels week on week and up 8.9 million barrels yr on yr, the report confirmed.
“At 457.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4 p.c beneath the 5 yr common for this time of yr,” the EIA mentioned in its newest weekly petroleum standing report.
“Complete motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels from final week and are about one p.c beneath the 5 yr common for this time of yr. Completed gasoline inventories elevated, whereas mixing elements inventories decreased final week. Distillate gasoline inventories barely decreased final week and are about seven p.c beneath the 5 yr common for this time of yr,” it added.
“Propane/propylene inventories elevated by 2.9 million barrels from final week and are 14 p.c above the 5 yr common for this time of yr,” it continued.
In a separate report despatched to Rigzone final week, previous to the discharge of the EIA’s Could 15 weekly petroleum standing report, Macquarie strategists revealed that they had been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be down 3.5 million barrels for the week ending Could 10.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report will likely be launched on Could 22. It is going to present information for the week ending Could 17.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com