In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie group this week, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will probably be down 10.9 million barrels for the week ending June 28.
“This compares to a 3.6 million barrel construct for the week ending June 21, with the entire U.S. crude stability realizing modestly tighter than we had anticipated final week,” the strategists famous within the report.
“Shifting to this week, from refineries, we mannequin crude runs up barely (+0.1 million barrels per day) following one other comfortable print final week. Amongst internet imports, we mannequin a really massive discount, with exports sharply increased (+1.2 million barrels per day nominally) and imports reasonably decrease (-0.4 million barrels per day),” they added.
“Though a bounce in exports following the prior week’s climate associated disruptions strikes us as affordable, timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability,” they continued.
Within the report, the strategists outlined that, from implied home provide, they’re on the lookout for a “reasonable lower (-0.4 million barrels per day), following a really robust nominal print final week”.
“Rounding out the image, we mannequin a smaller enhance in SPR stock (+0.7 million barrels) on the week,” they added.
“Likewise, we anticipate throughout the board attracts in merchandise this week, led by distillate (-2.3 million barrels) and gasoline (-1.2 million barrels), with jet shares additionally decrease (-0.3 million barrels). We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.8 million barrels per day for the week ending June 28,” they continued.
In a weekly petroleum standing report issued on June 26, which confirmed knowledge for the week ending June 21, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) revealed that U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 3.6 million barrels from the week ending June 14 to the week ending June 21.
U.S. crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, got here in at 460.7 million barrels per day on June 21, 457.1 million barrels per day on June 14, and 453.7 million barrels per day on June 23, 2023, the report confirmed. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 372.2 million barrels per day on June 21, 370.9 million barrels per day on June 14, and 348.6 million barrels per day on June 23, 2023, the report revealed.
Complete petroleum shares within the U.S. – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene sort jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.668 billion barrels on June 21, the report highlighted. This determine was up 9.4 million barrels week on week and up 55.7 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the report outlined.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on July 3 and can embody knowledge for the week ending June 28. The report states that it “gives well timed info on provide and chosen costs of crude oil and principal petroleum merchandise”.
In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie group on June 24, previous to the discharge of the EIA’s weekly petroleum standing report exhibiting knowledge for the week ending June 21, Macquarie strategists revealed that they have been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be up 5.3 million barrels for the week ending June 21.
“This compares to a 2.5 million barrel draw for the week ending June 14, with the entire U.S. crude stability once more realizing looser than we had anticipated final week,” the strategists famous in that report.
“We anticipate a bigger enhance in SPR stock (+1.3 million barrels) on the week,” the strategists added in that report.
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