J.P. Morgan and Normal Chartered have revealed their newest Brent oil worth forecasts in two separate stories despatched to Rigzone lately.
In a report despatched to Rigzone on Tuesday, J.P. Morgan projected that the Brent crude worth will common $83 per barrel in 2024 and $75 per barrel in 2025. The corporate forecast within the report that the commodity will common $79 per barrel within the first quarter of 2024, $84 per barrel throughout the second and third quarters, $85 per barrel within the fourth quarter of this yr, $82 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $77 per barrel within the second quarter, $73 per barrel within the third quarter, and $69 per barrel within the fourth quarter.
A J.P Morgan report revealed in November final yr, which was additionally despatched to Rigzone, revealed that the corporate anticipated the Brent crude worth to come back in at $83 per barrel this yr and $75 per barrel subsequent yr.
“After dropping by an estimated 17 p.c in 2023, Brent oil worth is predicted to stay largely flat in 2024 and edge additional down 10 p.c in 2025,” J.P. Morgan analysts acknowledged in that report.
In a report despatched to Rigzone on Wednesday, Normal Chartered projected that the ICE Brent worth will common $92 per barrel within the first quarter of 2024, $94 per barrel within the second quarter, $98 per barrel within the third quarter, and $106 per barrel within the fourth quarter.
The report anticipated that ICE Brent would are available in at $107 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $103 per barrel within the second quarter, and $109 per barrel total in 2025.
“Whereas bodily merchants appear [to] have change into extra satisfied of the underlying power of the oil market, that view has been slower to unfold to monetary merchants of oil,” Normal Chartered analysts acknowledged within the report.
“High-down considerations primarily based on the financial outlook and potential forex actions seem to stay dominant amongst this group, though we additionally detect larger curiosity in oil fundamentals than at the beginning of the yr,” they added.
“Nonetheless, with most of the extra essentially pushed funds at present sitting on the sidelines, there have been durations intra-day when worth actions seem to have been generated by algorithmic buying and selling virtually in isolation,” they continued.
The Normal Chartered analysts famous within the report that the transfer increased in costs has been comparatively sluggish, “even with the dual tailwinds of the sturdy yr on yr enchancment in total balances and robust OPEC+ compliance with each targets and voluntary cuts”.
“The latest sample has been a sluggish upward development by a succession of sturdy technical resistance ranges, interlaced with a collection of enormous speedy intra-day actions that we expect have been primarily pushed by algorithmic merchants,” the analysts mentioned within the report.
“The resultant upside congestion on worth charts has been notably evident over the previous week; the intra-day excessive for front-month Brent has been in a slender $83.60-83.66 per barrel vary on 4 of the previous 5 buying and selling days, and the intra-day excessive for all of the previous seven buying and selling days has been inside a $83.24-83.66 per barrel vary,” they added.
“Whereas each Brent and WTI have reached three-month settlement highs over the previous week, the present drift increased with low volatility suggests the market continues to be considerably disconnected from each fundamentals and geopolitical danger,” the analysts went on to state.
The Normal Chartered analysts additionally highlighted within the report that Normal Chartered’s machine studying oil worth mannequin, which has been dubbed SCORPIO, “signifies every week on week fall of $1.75 per barrel for Brent settlement on February 26, with crude inventories accounting for a lower of $0.71 per barrel in accordance with the decomposition”.
“Final week SCORPIO indicated a Brent settlement worth of $83.60 per barrel on February 19; the precise worth was $83.56 per barrel, including to SCORPIO’s latest sturdy run,” the analysts added within the report.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com