In its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched not too long ago, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) stated India has emerged because the main supply of progress in world oil consumption in its forecast.
“Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25 p.c of complete oil consumption progress globally,” the EIA famous in its November STEO.
The group highlighted within the STEO that it expects consumption of liquid fuels in India to extend by 0.3 million barrels per day each this 12 months and subsequent 12 months, “pushed by rising demand for transportation fuels”.
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“We anticipate a rise of 1.0 million barrels per day in world consumption of liquid fuels in 2024,” the EIA revealed in its November STEO.
“We anticipate much more progress subsequent 12 months, with world oil consumption rising by 1.2 million barrels per day,” it added.
The EIA identified in its STEO that non-OECD nations drive nearly all world oil consumption progress in its forecast, noting that a lot of this progress is in Asia.
The group projected that China’s petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will develop by lower than 0.1 million barrels per day in 2024 “earlier than recovering to nearly 0.3 million barrels per day 2025”.
“We now have revised China’s 2024 consumption downward a number of occasions over the previous 12 months,” the EIA highlighted within the STEO.
“In China, quickly increasing electrical car possession, rising use of liquefied pure fuel for trucking items, and decelerating financial progress have restricted consumption progress for transportation fuels,” it added.
The EIA identified in its STEO that its 2024 and 2025 world consumption figures are “each under the pre-pandemic 10-year common of 1.5 million barrels per day of annual progress, in addition to under the oil demand progress seen within the pandemic restoration from 2021 to 2023”.
In its newest STEO, the EIA tasks that complete consumption will are available in at 103.13 million barrels per day in 2024 and 104.35 million barrels per day in 2025. This determine was 102.14 million barrels per day in 2023, in response to the STEO.
Customary Chartered Demand Figures
In a report despatched to Rigzone this week by Customary Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell, analysts on the financial institution, together with Horsnell, revealed their “first estimate of world oil demand in September”.
“We calculate demand at 103.012 million barrels per day. June was the primary month by which demand had ever exceeded 103 million barrels per day and September is the fourth consecutive month above that stage,” they analysts acknowledged within the report.
“The 12 months on 12 months improve in demand in September was 1.136 million barrels per day, under the 12 months to this point common of 1.332 million barrels per day however an enchancment on August, when progress was simply 0.631 million barrels per day,” they added.
Within the report, the Customary Chartered Financial institution analysts stated the November spherical of month-to-month stability experiences introduced little in the way in which of great modifications to 2025 outlooks.
“The Worldwide Vitality Company revised its 2025 world demand progress forecast 8,000 barrels per day decrease to 0.99 million barrels per day, the Vitality Data Administration’s forecast was lowered by 72,000 barrels per day to 1.219 million barrels per day, and the OPEC Secretariat forecast was lowered 103,000 barrels per day to 1.539 million barrels per day,” they acknowledged.
“Our 2025 world demand progress forecast is closest to the EIA’s; we forecast progress of 1.297 million barrels per day, which is 74,000 barrels per day increased than our earlier month’s forecast,” they continued.
The analysts acknowledged within the report that the distinction between their forecast and the IEA’s is properly inside statistical error margins however added that “it comes primarily from estimates for demand progress in China, India and the U.S., which we place about 100,000 barrels per day increased in every case”.
“Our forecasts are 301,000 barrels per day for China, 319,000 barrels per day for India, and 180,000 barrels per day for the USA,” they added.
JPM Demand Numbers
In a analysis be aware despatched to Rigzone this week by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff, analysts at J.P. Morgan stated world oil demand averaged 103.6 million barrels per day through the first 19 days of November, “marking a 12 months over 12 months improve of 1.7 million barrels per day, in step with our expectations”.
The analysts highlighted within the be aware that, 12 months to this point, demand has risen by 1.2 million barrels per day in contrast with their November 2023 forecast of a 1.5 million barrel per day improve.
“World oil demand recovered over the previous week after experiencing a gentle patch the earlier week,” the analysts stated within the be aware.
“U.S. gasoline demand trended decrease, following seasonal norms, whereas distillate demand decreased because the climate remained hotter than regular. In the meantime, air journey demand within the U.S. rebounded sharply, whereas Chinese language each day flights remained unchanged,” they added.
“India noticed a major rise in journey and industrial demand, with diesel consumption increasing by 11 p.c and gasoline gross sales rising by 4.4 p.c month over month through the first half of November,” they continued.
In a earlier analysis be aware despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on October 30, J.P. Morgan analysts stated world oil demand had averaged 103.4 million barrels month to this point, “marking a 2.1 million barrel per day 12 months over 12 months improve and exceeding our estimates by 0.1 million barrels per day, primarily attributable to robust demand for distillates”.
“12 months to this point, demand has risen by 1.2 million barrels per day in comparison with our November 2023 forecast of a 1.5 million barrel per day improve,” the analysts highlighted in that be aware.
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