In a BofA World Analysis report despatched to Rigzone not too long ago, analysts stated they anticipate complete oil consumption ranges to succeed in 107 million barrels per day by 2029, “including internet progress of about 3.7 million barrels per day over the subsequent six-year interval”.
“Nonetheless, at 600,000 barrels per day 12 months on 12 months on common, oil demand progress into the tip of the last decade ought to be a fraction of the speed noticed previously three years,” they added.
Within the report, the analysts famous {that a} Covid-19 demand contraction to 92 million barrels per day in 2020 was offset by three restoration years “the place demand grew 3.3 million barrels per day 12 months on 12 months on common”. They highlighted within the report that international oil demand hit a document of round 103 million barrels per day within the third quarter of final 12 months.
“Whereas we see a decelerating development, we now consider that oil demand will possible proceed to develop modestly to 2030 as gasoline lingers on and substitution developments ease,” the analysts famous within the report.
“A gentle slowdown in electrical automobile gross sales progress factors to modestly higher prospects for mild ends. World oil demand progress into 2029 will likely be most pronounced in segments which might be laborious to decarbonize comparable to airways and chemical firms,” they added.
“The aviation sector will attempt to shift to extra renewables comparable to SAF (sustainable aviation gas), however these alternate options are very costly and jet gas demand will stay a key petroleum driver supporting distillates,” they continued.
The analysts additionally projected within the report that marine transportation will develop into the subsequent decade however added that various transport fuels like LNG and methanol “will make a small dent”.
“Petrochemical feedstock consumption will possible stay the thickest oil market pillar as demand will possible develop into 2050,” they added.
The analysts famous within the report that OECD consumption will possible contract by 1.5 million barrels per day to 44 million barrels per day by 2029 “on getting old populations, elevated efficiencies, and substitution”.
“Sluggish revenue progress might play a task too. As a substitute, rising markets will hold oil demand on a progress path, though Chinese language oil consumption ought to peak round 2030 as surging EV gross sales set off a giant slowdown in home gas demand,” they added.
“In the meantime, India will stay the quickest rising main petroleum market as revenue per capita catches up. At any fee, the ultimate vacation spot in the direction of internet zero emissions doesn’t change, as renewable power costs drop to turn out to be aggressive with thermal gas alternate options,” they continued.
“Following a 2.3 million barrel per day, or 2.3 % enlargement in 2023, oil consumption will possible proceed to develop into 2030, however the fee of oil demand progress has possible peaked for good,” they went on to state.
In its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO), the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) projected that complete world consumption will hit 102.42 million barrels per day in 2024 and 103.71 million barrels per day in 2025. Based on the STEO, complete world demand got here in at 101 million barrels per day in 2023.
“We forecast that international consumption of liquid fuels will improve by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“Many of the anticipated liquid fuels demand progress is in non-OECD Asia, led by China and India, which we anticipate will improve consumption by a mixed 0.6 million barrels per day in 2024 and 0.5 million barrels per day in 2025,” it added.
“In OECD international locations, liquid fuels consumption stays comparatively flat in 2024 and 2025,” the EIA went on to state.
In its earlier STEO, which was launched final month, the EIA projected that complete world consumption would hit 102.46 million barrels per day this 12 months and 103.67 million barrels per day in 2025. That STEO outlined that 2023 oil demand was 101.07 million barrels per day.
“We anticipate progress in international liquid fuels consumption will likely be decrease over the subsequent two years – forecast consumption grows by 1.4 million barrels per day (1.4 %), in 2024 and by 1.2 million barrels per day (1.2 %) in 2025,” the EIA stated in that STEO.
“Though progress in 2024 and 2025 is lower than the 1.9 million barrel per day progress in 2023, it’s largely per the 1.2 % common annual progress in international liquid fuels consumption over the 20 years from 2004–2023,” it added.
“We attribute the discount in progress to slowing oil demand progress in China as a result of stalling GDP progress, growing automobile fleet effectivity, and an finish to pandemic recovery-related progress in 2023. Regardless of decrease oil demand progress, international consumption of liquid fuels nonetheless reaches a brand new document of over 103.5 million barrels per day in 2025,” the EIA went on to state.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com