The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) has revealed its newest Brent spot worth forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its March Brief Time period Power Outlook (STEO), which was launched this week.
In keeping with the STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot worth averaging $74.22 per barrel this yr and $68.47 per barrel subsequent yr. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in February, the EIA projected that the Brent spot worth would common $74.50 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026.
The EIA outlined in its newest STEO that it sees the Brent spot worth coming in at $74.89 per barrel within the first quarter of this yr, $74.00 per barrel within the second quarter, $75.00 per barrel within the third quarter, $73.02 per barrel within the fourth quarter, $71.00 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026, $69.00 per barrel within the second quarter, $68.00 per barrel within the third quarter, and $66.00 per barrel within the fourth quarter.
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In its earlier February STEO, the EIA forecast that the Brent spot worth would common $77.13 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $75.00 per barrel within the second quarter, $74.00 per barrel within the third quarter, $72.00 per barrel within the fourth quarter, $68.97 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026, $67.33 per barrel within the second quarter, $65.68 per barrel within the third quarter, and $64.00 per barrel within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr.
In its newest STEO, the EIA highlighted that the Brent crude oil spot worth averaged $75 per barrel in February, which it identified was $4 per barrel decrease than in January and $8 per barrel decrease than on the similar time final yr.
“Crude oil costs fell throughout February pushed largely by financial development considerations associated to potential tariffs by each the US and different commerce companions,” the EIA mentioned in its March STEO.
“On February 1, President Donald J. Trump signed an Govt Order asserting the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. Subsequently, the implementation of tariffs for many imports from Mexico and Canada have been delayed till early April, so the results of these potential tariffs should not mirrored on this outlook,” it added.
“The evolving tariff coverage has added uncertainty round expectations for world oil demand development, considerations about which had persistently weighed on oil costs during the last yr,” the EIA continued.
“On the availability facet, any potential ceasefire within the Russia-Ukraine battle might add Russian oil volumes again into the market. Lastly, continued provide development from producers outdoors of the OPEC+ settlement, primarily in North and South America, provides extra downward strain to our worth forecast in 2026,” the EIA went on to state.
In its March STEO, the EIA mentioned it expects key upward worth pressures will push the Brent worth again into the mid-$70 per barrel vary within the coming months.
“This month’s outlook consists of the introduction of latest U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude oil issued on February 24, which have the potential to take away important volumes of crude oil from the market,” the EIA famous in its report.
“Equally, we count on the latest announcement revoking licenses for Venezuelan oil manufacturing and exports to the US will scale back Venezuela’s oil manufacturing starting in March, tightening near-term oil market balances considerably in contrast with our February STEO,” it added.
“Regardless of much less manufacturing from Iran and Venezuela on this month’s forecast, we nonetheless count on OPEC manufacturing will develop over the following two years. OPEC+ reaffirmed its dedication on March 3 to proceed with ‘a gradual and versatile return’ of the two.2 million barrels per day voluntary changes beginning on April 1, 2025,” it continued.
“This announcement included the stipulation that the manufacturing will increase may very well be paused or reversed topic to market circumstances, which leaves some uncertainty about whether or not will increase will materialize in step with the announcement,” the EIA went on to state within the March STEO.
A report despatched to Rigzone by Customary Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell on Tuesday confirmed that Customary Chartered expects the ICE Brent close by future crude oil worth to common $75 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $73 per barrel within the second quarter, $77 per barrel within the third quarter, $82 per barrel within the fourth quarter, $85 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026, and $83 per barrel within the second quarter.
Customary Chartered sees the general 2026 ICE Brent close by future crude oil worth averaging $85 per barrel, the report highlighted.
A analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on March 7 confirmed that J.P. Morgan anticipated the Brent Crude worth to common $74 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $77 per barrel within the second quarter, $73 per barrel within the third quarter, $69 per barrel within the fourth quarter, and $73 per barrel total in 2025.
J.P. Morgan noticed the Brent Crude worth coming in at $64 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026, $63 per barrel within the second quarter, $59 per barrel within the third quarter, $57 per barrel within the fourth quarter, and $61 per barrel total in 2026, the analysis word outlined.
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