Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play reached a brand new oil manufacturing report of 400,000 barrels per day within the third quarter and is on observe to hit a million barrels per day by 2030, based on Rystad Vitality’s newest evaluation.
That’s what Rystad said in a launch despatched to Rigzone by the Rystad group not too long ago, including that the 35 % 12 months on 12 months surge in third-quarter manufacturing was pushed by improved productiveness and expanded takeaway capability, “led by flagship operator Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF) and bolstered by native unbiased producers”.
Rystad highlighted within the launch that YPF accounted for almost 55 % of Vaca Muerta’s oil manufacturing final quarter and identified that the corporate “noticed its income rise seven % quarter on quarter and 18 % 12 months on 12 months to exceed $5.3 billion”.
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“Unbiased producer Vista Vitality additionally performed a big position, with its Bajada del Palo Oeste area contributing over 20 % of the oil output development, adopted by YPF-operated Bandurria Sur and Loma Campana-Loma La Lata fields,” Rystad added.
The corporate famous within the launch that this development can be mirrored within the rising variety of horizontal wells placed on manufacturing. Rystad outlined that this averaged 40 wells monthly within the third quarter. It stood at 33 within the first quarter and 34 within the second, the corporate highlighted.
“A report 46 new wells had been introduced on-line in September alone, of which 39 had been within the oil zone and the rest within the gasoline zone, underscoring the continued operational effectivity and momentum of Argentina’s flagship shale play,” Rystad mentioned within the launch.
The corporate said that, to maintain this development, Argentina is investing closely in vitality infrastructure to deal with bottlenecks.
“The $2.5 billion Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, developed below the Massive Funding Incentive Regime (RIGI), is a cornerstone of those efforts, aiming to broaden takeaway capability and facilitate smoother oil transportation from Vaca Muerta to international markets,” it mentioned.
“In parallel, Argentina has considerably enhanced its transportation community, boosting home provide and export potential,” it added.
Radhika Bansal, Rystad Vitality’s Vice President of Upstream Analysis, mentioned within the launch, “it could possibly’t be overstated how essential Vaca Muerta is to Argentina’s vitality independence and efforts to scale back imports”.
“Alongside state-owned gamers, unbiased producers have a rising affect within the play, contributing 35 % of oil manufacturing and 23 % of gasoline manufacturing,” Bansal added.
“There’s each purpose to view Vaca Muerta as a central pillar of Argentina’s long-term vitality technique and financial resilience, with an actual risk of reaching the a million barrel per day mark by 2030,” Bansal went on to state.
In a launch despatched to Rigzone by the Rystad group in Might final 12 months, Rystad mentioned crude oil manufacturing from Vaca Muerta “may surge within the coming years and prime a million barrels per day by the top of the last decade, however provided that takeaway capability and rig availability don’t restrict development”.
“Rystad Vitality’s modeling reveals that if manufacturing is comparatively unimpeded, oil output may realistically develop from 291,000 barrels per day in February 2023 to multiple million barrels per day within the second half of 2030,” Rystad added in its Might 2023 launch.
Additionally in that launch, Alexandre Ramos Peon, head of shale analysis at Rystad Vitality, mentioned “Vaca Muerta may maintain the important thing to Argentina’s future vitality economic system following greater than a decade of oil manufacturing declines”.
“Whereas main challenges lie forward, reaching the necessary a million barrels per day threshold would change the nation’s narrative,” Peon went on to state.
The U.S. Vitality Info Administration’s (EIA) newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched final month, projected that Argentina’s petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing will common 0.88 million barrels per day in 2024 and 0.92 million barrels per day in 2025. This determine got here in at 0.82 million barrels per day in 2023, the STEO highlighted.
In its newest statistical evaluation of world vitality, which was launched earlier this 12 months, the Vitality Institute (EI) confirmed that Argentina’s oil manufacturing was 1.074 million barrels per day in 2023. That determine marked a 12.5 % 12 months on 12 months improve and 1.1 % of world oil manufacturing in 2023, the EI evaluation outlined.
Argentina’s crude oil and condensate manufacturing got here in at 0.946 million barrels per day in 2023, based on the EI evaluation, which highlighted that this represented a 13.8 % 12 months on 12 months development charge and 1.1 % of world crude oil and condensate output that 12 months.
The EIA’s petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing determine consists of crude oil, lease condensate, pure gasoline plant liquids, different liquids, refinery processing achieve, and different unaccounted-for liquids, the STEO outlined.
The EI’s oil manufacturing determine consists of crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gasoline condensates that require additional refining), and NGLs (pure gasoline liquids – ethane, LPG and naphtha separated from the manufacturing of pure gasoline), the evaluation highlights. It excludes liquid fuels from different sources similar to biofuels and artificial derivatives of coal and pure gasoline. It additionally excludes liquid gas adjustment elements, similar to refinery processing achieve, and oil shales/kerogen extracted in strong type.
The EI’s crude oil and condensate determine consists of crude oil, shale/tight oil, oil sands, and lease condensate or gasoline condensates that require additional refining, the evaluation reveals. It excludes liquid fuels from different sources similar to biomass and artificial derivatives of coal and pure gasoline.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
