Gunvor Group Ltd. Chief Govt Officer Torbjörn Törnqvist estimates about 600,000 barrels of Russia’s day by day oil-refining capability has been knocked out by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Weekend drone strikes hit a number of crops in Russia, some deep inside its borders, sending diesel futures increased for a fourth straight session whereas gasoline futures climbed for a sixth.
“It’s vital as a result of clearly that is gonna hit the distillate exports immediately,” Törnqvist stated throughout an interview on the CERAWeek by S&P World convention in Houston on Monday. “So that can most likely take down exports by a few hundred thousand barrels, so to me it’s a distillate drawback.”
Gunvor was a serious dealer of Russian petroleum earlier than the invasion of Ukraine however retreated from the commerce not lengthy after the battle started.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., in the meantime, estimated the Ukrainian assaults had taken about 900,000 barrels a day of Russian oil refining capability offline. It may very well be “a number of weeks, if not months” till the capability was restored, with the strikes including about $4 a barrel of threat premium to world crude costs, analysts together with Natasha Kaneva stated in a word.
Broadly writ, crude oil markets are principally in steadiness and pretty valued, Törnqvist stated, including that US provides are more likely to develop this 12 months by about half the speed of 2023’s 700,000-to-800,000 barrel-a-day tempo. Nonetheless, non-OPEC provide development general is more likely to be flat this 12 months, he stated.
Gunvor, co-founded by Törnqvist in 2000, lately purchased liquefied pure gasoline tankers, and expects transport to be a major driver of the agency’s development in coming years.