In its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched final week, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) projected that driving exercise, measured by automobile miles traveled (VMT), will improve to all-time highs within the U.S. throughout 2024 and 2025 “as developments in inhabitants, employment, and financial development improve”.
“Our employment forecast is the primary contributor to elevated driving exercise, and we’ve got revised it up, by one p.c, or by 0.8 million jobs, for 2024 in contrast with final month’s STEO, based mostly on forecasts from S&P International,” the EIA famous within the STEO.
“Regardless of our forecast of extra driving, elevated fleetwide automobile gasoline effectivity will preserve motor gasoline consumption comparatively flat by 2025,” the EIA added.
The group highlighted in its newest STEO that, final yr, U.S. VMT “barely surpassed the pre-pandemic excessive set in 2019, at 8.9 billion miles per day”.
“Regardless of the rise in driving, nonetheless, continued effectivity beneficial properties lately imply drivers are, on common, consuming much less gasoline,” the EIA mentioned in its March STEO.
“When listed to 2019, we anticipate two p.c extra U.S. VMT in each 2024 and 2025 in contrast with 2019. We forecast common U.S. miles per gallon will develop even quicker, with 5 p.c extra in 2024 than in 2019 and 2025 being six p.c increased,” the EIA added.
“Our consumption mannequin captures developments in rising common gasoline effectivity, reminiscent of these associated to rising company common gasoline economic system requirements and the rising use of electrical autos,” it continued.
“Consequently, U.S. motor gasoline consumption will likely be about 4 p.c much less in 2024 and 2025 than in 2019,” the EIA went on to state.
USA Gasoline Value Projection
The EIA raised its U.S. retail gasoline value projection in its March STEO.
In keeping with the report, the EIA now sees the retail gasoline value averaging $3.23 per gallon within the first quarter of 2024, $3.60 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.68 per gallon within the third quarter, $3.39 per gallon within the fourth quarter, and $3.48 per gallon general in 2024.
The EIA expects the retail gasoline value to common $3.34 per gallon within the first quarter of 2025, $3.56 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.59 per gallon within the third quarter, $3.28 per gallon within the fourth quarter, and $3.45 per gallon general in 2025, the March STEO revealed.
In its earlier February STEO, the EIA projected that the retail gasoline value would common $3.13 per gallon within the first quarter of 2024, $3.40 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.50 per gallon within the third quarter, $3.21 per gallon within the fourth quarter, $3.18 per gallon within the first quarter of 2025, $3.41 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.46 per gallon within the third quarter, and $3.18 per gallon within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr.
The EIA forecast in that STEO that, general in 2024 and 2025, the retail gasoline value would common $3.31 per gallon.
“Refinery outages are … decreasing motor gasoline manufacturing and inventories,” the EIA mentioned in its newest STEO.
“We estimate mixed East Coast and Gulf Coast inventories ended February about 5 p.c beneath the five-year (2019–2023) common. The decrease inventories within the East Coast and Gulf Coast have an outsized influence on complete U.S. gasoline availability and costs as a result of collectively they make up the most important gasoline producing and consuming area of the US,” it added.
“We estimate U.S. retail gasoline costs in 2Q24 will common nearly $3.60 per gallon, up practically 20 cents per gallon from the February STEO. Decrease inventories are driving the will increase in gasoline crack spreads, whereas retail costs are additionally increased due to increased crude oil costs,” the EIA continued.
Present USA Gasoline Value
In keeping with the AAA Fuel Costs web site, the common value of normal gasoline within the U.S. is $3.467 per gallon, as of March 18. Yesterday’s common was $3.461 per gallon, the week in the past common was $3.397 per gallon, the month in the past common was $3.279 per gallon, and the yr in the past common was $3.449 per gallon, the AAA web site confirmed.
GasBuddy’s stay ticking common for normal gasoline within the U.S. was $3.453 per gallon, as of 6am EST on March 18, which the group outlined was 0.6 cents decrease than yesterday’s common, 5.0 cents increased than final week’s common, 17.0 cents increased than final month’s common, and a pair of.0 cents increased than final yr’s common.
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